Genuine-Fate
0xb3e4a98a69fd63db1a4320977f58dd51e526fb45
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$153.90
Total PnL
$-930.78
Realised
$-36.47
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?
100 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.00
$7.10
- YES
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
100 shares @ 31.9¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.50
$-5.40
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$17.50
$-12.50
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
50 shares @ 40.7¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.75
$-15.62
- YES
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
30 shares @ 22.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.20
$-2.40
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.95
$-36.05
- YES
DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?
650 shares @ 65.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-427.93
- NO
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
500 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
396 shares @ 75.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-300.27
- NO
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?
260 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$296.99May 22, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$51.00May 22, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$36.00May 22, 22:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$48.00May 22, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$13.50May 22, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$15.27May 22, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$12.73May 22, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$59.97May 22, 22:33 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.10May 22, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.72May 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?$16.00May 21, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$50.01May 21, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$16.40May 21, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$38.83May 21, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$16.80May 21, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$39.22May 21, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$178.65May 21, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?$26.73May 21, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?$12.00May 21, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$6.00May 21, 22:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $32.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 20:05 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 23:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.