MacroExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Probability

36¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$35.1K

Liquidity

$140.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 18:00Apr 29, 2026, 03:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5901.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
reuters
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Alerts

¢
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