Bitter-Interchange
0xb4242b37f6914472abfad5c3ea2d6e86199e3b71
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$345.28
Total PnL
$-6.7K
Realised
$470.51
Win rate
62%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1871 shares @ 10.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$177.74
$-18.03
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?
139 shares @ 36.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$40.97
$-9.03
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
173 shares @ 24.2¢·now 21.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.62
$-5.18
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
591 shares @ 6.9¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.64
$-9.12
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
532 shares @ 3.8¢·now 2.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.68
$-4.66
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
111 shares @ 18.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.89
$-11.11
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
104 shares @ 15.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.86
$-6.77
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
86 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.18
$-6.45
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in July?
540 shares @ 6.8¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.09
$-28.77
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?
244 shares @ 16.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$7.55
$-31.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$50.00Jul 24, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$9.32Jul 24, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$30.76Jul 24, 00:26 UTC
- REDEEMFC St. Gallen vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score$90.74Jul 23, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC St. Gallen vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score$50.13Jul 23, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?$9.49Jul 23, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$20.00Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$10.32Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$20.49Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$223.00Jul 23, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$30.00Jul 21, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$135.59Jul 21, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$166.39Jul 19, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$9.34Jul 19, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$20.00Jul 19, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$15.08Jul 19, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 20?$43.23Jul 19, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$30.00Jul 19, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$25.72Jul 19, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$101.00Jul 19, 11:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $54.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 19:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.