Wallet digest

whaleinsufficient history

Activity score

72/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$113.2K

Total PnL

$-43.9K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
165216 shares @ 70.9¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$80.1K
$-37.0K
NO
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
23767 shares @ 76.2¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$19.1K
$1.0K
NO
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
11358 shares @ 85.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$10.5K
$792.66
NO
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?
3508 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$3.4K
$205.21
NO
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 67.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$3.37
$0.98
NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
15555 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-8.6K
YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
945 shares @ 37.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-352.04
YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
401 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.22

Recent activity

YIELD$1.99Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$2.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$2.01Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$2.01Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$1.94Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$1.84Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$1.80Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$1.81Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
YIELD$1.81Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$1.82Jul 19, 00:19 UTC
TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France vs. England: Team to Win$9.58Jul 18, 21:18 UTC
YIELD$1.78Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$1.78Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$1.78Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$1.70Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$363.09Jul 14, 18:13 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?$271.76Jul 14, 18:12 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$13.22Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
YIELD$1.59Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
REWARD$3.03Jul 14, 00:00 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity59 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry38 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk82 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 16
Avg trade size: $1.1K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 2, 06:42 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:31:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data