Long-Stuff
0xb48b1a8f796ba414672f8974dbfedca5c6c504eb
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$29.9K
Total PnL
$-7.9K
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
30%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
2430 shares @ 63.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.3K
$773.27
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
2202 shares @ 49.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$2.1K
$981.88
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2500 shares @ 79.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$83.33
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
4500 shares @ 44.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.0K
$67.50
- NO
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
1700 shares @ 91.2¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.7K
$128.60
- NO
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
2905 shares @ 67.5¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$-422.37
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 76.4¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.5K
$329.94
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 53.2¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$-171.88
- NO
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
1714 shares @ 83.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$-68.57
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
1505 shares @ 62.6¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$239.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$3.55Aug 11, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?$0.06Aug 11, 06:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 10?$100.00Aug 11, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?$2.05Aug 11, 00:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.91Aug 11, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$3.77Aug 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$21.27Aug 10, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$790.00Aug 10, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$410.00Aug 10, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$900.00Aug 10, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$430.00Aug 10, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$463.01Aug 10, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$101.40Aug 10, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$6.93Aug 10, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$6.93Aug 10, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.36Aug 10, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$23.05Aug 10, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.52Aug 10, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$40.00Aug 10, 04:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $123.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 18:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 08:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.