Ignorant-Towtruck-Grandmom
0xb51a38109c7bf90e077578bdaaae75864e5467aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$33.54
Total PnL
$3.30
Realised
$123.14
Win rate
50%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Scribe Therapeutics' market cap be at least $145M at market close on IPO day?
35 shares @ 42.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$12.07
$-2.63
- YES
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
20 shares @ 18.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.10
$1.50
- YES
Will Jill Tokuda be the HI-02 Democratic nominee?
4 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$3.84
$0.00
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of July 20 2026?
40 shares @ 8.5¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.80
$-1.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.73
$0.76
- YES
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of July 20 2026?
20 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.50
$-0.10
- YES
Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026?
6 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Nov 13, 2026$1.47
$-0.03
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?
3 shares @ 43.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.14
$-0.12
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
2 shares @ 57.1¢·now 60.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.97
$0.05
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
1 shares @ 69.5¢·now 72.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.72
$0.03
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$1.33Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$62.08Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?$9.36Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$8.37Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$4.88Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?$5.99Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?$13.18Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?$29.97Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?$33.75Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?$4.63Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$7.68Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$31.27Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$15.13Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$13.69Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 23?$43.54Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?$85.31Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?$4.33Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- MERGEWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24?$19.40Jul 23, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24?$10.20Jul 23, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 24?$6.67Jul 23, 23:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $12.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 19:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.