Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$197.89
Liquidity
$538.20
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $538 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official government information
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 13, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2707.3h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court. State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.” The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will seltzers with 5mg THC be legal on November 13, 2026?"?
As of Fri, 24 Jul 2026 04:39:19 GMT, YES is priced at 26% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 13, 2026 (2026-11-13T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$197.89 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $538.20. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.