Substantial-Cord
0xb56dd7559c4abda88a66d980bc200285228f0d39
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$26.63
Total PnL
$-21.40
Realised
$5.18
Win rate
76%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
13 shares @ 42.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.55
$0.14
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7 shares @ 60.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.38
$0.17
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
7 shares @ 53.6¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.70
$-0.23
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
7 shares @ 25.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.94
$1.19
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.89
$-0.08
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
9 shares @ 23.6¢·now 23.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.15
$0.03
- NO
GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 43.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.11
$-0.08
- YES
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
6 shares @ 41.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.07
$-0.39
- YES
Will Trump’s remarks not air?
13 shares @ 2.7¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.49
$0.14
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
5 shares @ 8.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.33
$-0.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?$2.46Jul 29, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$1.75Jul 29, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$2.60Jul 29, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?$2.19Jul 29, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1.85Jul 29, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$3.03Jul 29, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.97Jul 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.89Jul 29, 13:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$3.30Jul 29, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$3.71Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$2.85Jul 29, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$3.50Jul 29, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.45Jul 29, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$2.55Jul 29, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$1.05Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$0.94Jul 29, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.00Jul 29, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.25Jul 28, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.10Jul 28, 19:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?$0.00Jul 28, 04:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 17:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 22:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.