Elliptical-Singular
0xb5a127793082414f94631fa504813d5fe21ec09d
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
56
Open notional
$13.74
Total PnL
$-443.45
Realised
$-7.33
Win rate
0%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 56- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
141 shares @ 17.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.34
$-18.07
- YES
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
165 shares @ 9.2¢·now 3.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.45
$-9.80
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.28
$-3.83
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
35 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.67
$-0.49
- YES
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?
3139 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-311.71
- YES
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
145 shares @ 23.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-34.53
- YES
Will Trump’s remarks not air?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
55 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 DR Congo?
12 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Colombia?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?$5.45Aug 3, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?$1.04Jul 21, 02:12 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.38Jul 19, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?$154.81Jul 18, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?$20.76Jul 17, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$2.80Jul 17, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?$1.00Jul 17, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?$0.23Jul 17, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?$0.28Jul 17, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$0.50Jul 17, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?$104.82Jul 17, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?$1.12Jul 17, 19:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Interfere" or "Interference" during Speech to the Nation?$1.12Jul 17, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?$1.70Jul 16, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Interfere" or "Interference" during Speech to the Nation?$1.00Jul 16, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$1.04Jul 16, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Middle East" during Speech to the Nation?$1.01Jul 16, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?$1.03Jul 16, 18:56 UTC
- REDEEMEngland to score first vs. Argentina?$2.27Jul 15, 21:48 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$3.03Jul 15, 21:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
51 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $8.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 01:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 16:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.