That-Percent
0xb5c4eb8dd83402b22466504039bde5760043cb3b
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-449.80
Realised
$-133.55
Win rate
22%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1929 shares @ 25.1¢·now 24.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$476.48
$-8.62
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
207 shares @ 90.2¢·now 90.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$187.04
$0.31
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
185 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$175.17
$0.93
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
162 shares @ 77.3¢·now 79.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$128.30
$3.08
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
117 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$117.06
$0.21
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
91 shares @ 95.7¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$87.72
$0.60
- YES
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
201 shares @ 40.9¢·now 39.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$79.51
$-2.90
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 93.7¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$57.93
$2.15
- NO
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 93.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$55.70
$3.03
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
67 shares @ 59.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$48.45
$9.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$1.00Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$16.38Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$25.00Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$12.93Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$243.45Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$7.69Jul 28, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$4.97Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$11.32Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$11.06Jul 28, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$19.82Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?$35.64Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$5.94Jul 28, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?$7.05Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYAlexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026?$6.93Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during cabinet meeting?$5.95Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Filibuster" during cabinet meeting?$8.98Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during cabinet meeting?$7.00Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?$9.27Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$12.87Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$5.94Jul 28, 14:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
32 closed markets, 22% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 19:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.