Tragic-Purity
0xb5cd69b7f81fb2b10875f2634406e80ce5286055
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$85.70
Total PnL
$0.33
Realised
$-0.75
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
37 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.18
$0.18
- NO
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
33 shares @ 75.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$23.69
$-0.82
- YES
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
51 shares @ 19.6¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.63
$-3.37
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$6.00
$5.00
- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
68 shares @ 4.4¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?
23 shares @ 2.5¢·now 10.3¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$2.34
$1.77
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7?
83 shares @ 0.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.75
$1.24
- YES
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.54
$-3.46
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 4?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.41
$0.41
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 3?$0.98Jul 2, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$3.00Jul 2, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 2?$0.68Jul 2, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2?$2.89Jul 2, 11:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?$0.92Jul 2, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 2?$0.94Jul 2, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$0.00Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?$0.00Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$5.35Jul 2, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$28.53Jul 2, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$0.87Jul 2, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$2.56Jul 2, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$15.04Jul 2, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$96.72Jul 2, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?$19.71Jul 2, 02:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?$24.27Jul 1, 21:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $6.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 13:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 13:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.