0xb65ea59530957d05f04055135032377b9961f194
0xb65ea59530957d05f04055135032377b9961f194
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$151.31
Total PnL
$13.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
No one announced as next James Bond?
32 shares @ 40.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$32.00
$19.13
- YES
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
15 shares @ 73.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$15.00
$3.93
- YES
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?
15 shares @ 77.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$15.00
$3.37
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 34.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.00
$9.20
- YES
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
8 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$8.00
$2.56
- YES
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
8 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$8.00
$1.92
- YES
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?
8 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.00
$4.08
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
8 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.99
$5.35
- YES
Will Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?
7 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$7.00
$2.59
- YES
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?
7 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$7.00
$2.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$3.08Jan 6, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?$4.41Jan 6, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$4.41Jan 6, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnduril IPO before 2027?$2.66Jan 6, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.39Jan 6, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$4.27Jan 6, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$2.17Jan 6, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo one announced as next James Bond?$2.87Jan 6, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?$3.22Jan 6, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$2.48Jan 6, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$6.24Jan 6, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?$2.40Jan 6, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.61Jan 6, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.61Jan 6, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$5.39Jan 6, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?$4.13Jan 6, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$2.03Jan 6, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.61Jan 6, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO before 2027?$2.10Jan 6, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?$3.57Jan 6, 05:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 4, 20:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 6, 21:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.