Demanding-Lycra
0xb772c26318ead3c9b8b01dc61826b71d16957b07
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$115.00
Total PnL
$20.16
Realised
$-0.81
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
19 shares @ 71.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$19.00
$5.41
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$14.00
$9.94
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
13 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$13.00
$3.51
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?
12 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$12.00
$6.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
11 shares @ 17.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$11.00
$9.13
- NO
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$9.00
$3.24
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
8 shares @ 24.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.00
$6.08
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
6 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.00
$1.74
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
6 shares @ 76.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.00
$1.40
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$5.00
$3.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$1.85Apr 18, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?$0.00Apr 18, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMTallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Pedro Boscardin Dias$0.00Apr 18, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?$0.00Apr 18, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Giles Hussey$0.00Apr 18, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?$0.00Apr 18, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?$11.00Apr 18, 08:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$0.00Apr 18, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMOpen Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Veronika Podrez$0.00Apr 18, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Moerani Bouzige$5.00Apr 18, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$7.50Apr 18, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$14.00Apr 18, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$4.26Apr 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$6.39Apr 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$7.20Apr 17, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYTallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Pedro Boscardin Dias$1.80Apr 17, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?$1.92Apr 17, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$5.22Apr 17, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$1.87Apr 17, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$4.06Apr 17, 14:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 11:30 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 18, 09:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.