Yearly-Root
0xb81623a40d434c50dbfe4d126be4833b6a793ff2
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$23.37
Total PnL
$-5.45
Realised
$6.18
Win rate
8%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?
39 shares @ 15.5¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$6.46
$0.46
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
14 shares @ 42.1¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
76 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.31
$-0.69
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 57.4¢·now 62.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.18
$0.18
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.91
$-0.09
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
4 shares @ 51.4¢·now 46.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14 shares @ 14.6¢·now 10.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11 shares @ 9.4¢·now 9.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$2.08Aug 22, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$1.04Aug 21, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Danube River return to normal levels between September 1 and September 14, 2026?$3.30Aug 21, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$1.04Aug 21, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$2.09Aug 20, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River return to normal levels between September 1 and September 14, 2026?$1.05Aug 19, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?$2.70Aug 18, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?$2.07Aug 15, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.01Aug 15, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$8.87Aug 15, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$1.02Aug 14, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.05Aug 14, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$1.02Aug 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.03Aug 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.02Aug 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.04Aug 14, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$1.02Aug 14, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$1.05Aug 12, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?$1.05Aug 11, 12:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?$3.04Aug 11, 11:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 01:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 08:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.