Rotten-Term
0xb8168c23210a2503ed21d2738f228554f3465f0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$557.08
Total PnL
$2.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
63 shares @ 94.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$62.35
$2.69
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
58 shares @ 77.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.53
$3.63
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.25
$0.75
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.25
$1.25
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$41.75
$-1.75
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
50 shares @ 84.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.00
$-1.00
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
50 shares @ 79.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.23
$-0.52
- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 77.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.00
$0.50
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
40 shares @ 93.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.46
$1.10
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
40 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$35.80
$0.60
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?$41.00Jul 11, 08:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $42.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.