Mature-Assumption
0xb8680f3722fb22f5fe1c5728317c142e3867f7df
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$19.63
Total PnL
$-149.16
Realised
$24.92
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$5.23Jul 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$4.99Jul 12, 17:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$5.63Jul 12, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$4.99Jul 12, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$5.37Jul 12, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$5.00Jul 12, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$5.63Jul 12, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$4.99Jul 12, 15:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$5.45Jul 12, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$4.99Jul 12, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$1.09Jul 10, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.14Jul 10, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.06Jul 10, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.26Jul 10, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$1.25Jul 10, 11:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.94Jul 10, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.43Jul 10, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.54Jul 10, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.54Jul 10, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.54Jul 10, 11:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 10:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 17:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.