Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$75.01
Liquidity
$6.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4522h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $6.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4522.4h
- 13:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4522h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).