Perky-Full
0xb88616639b7766bb405f20992e43aa043ea23024
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$225.09
Total PnL
$-142.86
Realised
$14.97
Win rate
91%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.75
$-4.25
- YES
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$14.24
$-5.75
- NO
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?
20 shares @ 65.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$12.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 25.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.53
$-1.48
- NO
City Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?
19 shares @ 63.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$11.11
$-0.86
- NO
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
15 shares @ 51.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$10.00
$2.44
- NO
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 43.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.90
$0.30
- YES
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
33 shares @ 25.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$8.36
$0.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
50 shares @ 22.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.25
$-2.75
- YES
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
16 shares @ 33.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$7.66
$2.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?$5.50Jul 22, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$1.63Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$6.66Jul 21, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$3.42Jul 21, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$16.50Jul 21, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$4.45Jul 21, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$12.25Jul 21, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$8.50Jul 18, 01:27 UTC
- REWARD$1.58Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$14.00Jul 16, 16:17 UTC
- REWARD$1.66Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.95Jul 15, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.52Jul 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.68Jul 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$7.39Jul 15, 06:14 UTC
- REWARD$2.55Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?$7.00Jul 14, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$0.40Jul 14, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.48Jul 14, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$7.20Jul 14, 05:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $6.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 17:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 03:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.