Positive-Negligee
0xb93e593149b39a99018f0bd12d41dbb7f827195e
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-264.09
Realised
$313.18
Win rate
78%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
2740 shares @ 35.1¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$917.99
$-45.22
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
641 shares @ 84.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$503.85
$-34.75
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
1203 shares @ 32.3¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$426.96
$38.97
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
385 shares @ 83.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$381.83
$62.19
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
218 shares @ 81.2¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$188.61
$11.51
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
212 shares @ 61.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$149.11
$20.10
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
278 shares @ 54.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$141.67
$-8.33
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
199 shares @ 10.8¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$130.04
$108.58
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
217 shares @ 46.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$102.17
$2.17
- YES
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
112 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.88
$0.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?$58.00Jul 23, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$10.35Jul 23, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?$10.31Jul 23, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on December 31, 2026?$10.38Jul 23, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?$10.38Jul 23, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?$10.38Jul 23, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$10.38Jul 23, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?$10.36Jul 23, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$40.69Jul 23, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 23, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$100.00Jul 23, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$47.16Jul 23, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$97.83Jul 23, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$143.78Jul 23, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI data center in space by December 31, 2027?$100.96Jul 23, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$101.99Jul 23, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$87.00Jul 23, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$50.00Jul 23, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$100.00Jul 23, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?$100.44Jul 23, 22:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $81.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 07:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 23:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.