Strident-Challenge
0xb976b1cf4006189198c31726a3196680f82dc213
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$278.18
Realised
$-33.25
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- SPACEX
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
1523 shares @ 72.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.5K
$383.03
- NO
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
253 shares @ 25.9¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$209.99
$144.46
- SRI LANKA
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka
414 shares @ 79.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$200.79
$-126.27
- NO
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
99 shares @ 77.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.55
$17.32
- NO
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
3 shares @ 57.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$-0.31
- NO
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.00
$0.50
- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$0.30
- YES
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
211 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-107.61
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$1.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Shutdown" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMAnother crypto hack over $100m before 2027?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for February 26 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ice Cream" this week? (March 8)$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ceará SC (-2.5)$290.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for January 28 be less than 2,000,000?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMAnother critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "President" 60+ times during the next press briefing?$0.00Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$42.00Apr 27, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$103.40Apr 27, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$219.78Apr 27, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?$219.12Apr 27, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $240.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 16:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 20:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.