Unhappy-Garage
0xb986084a183a218b59e97b2ddf1d3e2da9e04b60
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$256.91
Total PnL
$-724.35
Realised
$101.30
Win rate
7%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
72 shares @ 62.9¢·now 95.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$68.15
$23.15
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
55 shares @ 90.4¢·now 95.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$52.60
$2.60
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.50
$-9.50
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
581 shares @ 17.9¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.76
$-66.00
- YES
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
350 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$29.75
$1.75
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$-0.20
- YES
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
72 shares @ 14.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.66
$-5.34
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
26 shares @ 37.8¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.57
$-6.43
- YES
Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2027$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.01
$-3.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 5–10%?$10.00Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 10–15%?$10.00Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Austin Reaves play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$57.75Jul 13, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?$10.00Jul 9, 06:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?$10.00Jul 9, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?$147.01Jul 7, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?$0.79Jul 7, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$10.00Jul 6, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?$0.05Jul 5, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMTrump's face on US gold coin by July 4?$89.42Jul 5, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?$0.16Jul 3, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$3.40Jul 2, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$2.20Jul 2, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$2.27Jul 2, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$2.40Jul 2, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$0.17Jul 2, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$5.50Jul 2, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$4.50Jul 2, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$0.33Jul 2, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?$12.45Jul 2, 17:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $13.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 17:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 12:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.