Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?
Probability
54¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$99.82
Liquidity
$25.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+24.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 54¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1666h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1665.7h
- 14:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1666h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 54¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 55¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 55¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 55¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 55¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 56¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 56¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 56¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 0¢-0.2pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $1.9M
- 3¢-1.0pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $642.2K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $562.6K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $461.3K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $372.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $345.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any gold coin featuring Donald Trump’s likeness is officially issued by the U.S. Mint by July 4th, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A coin will be considered “officially issued” if the U.S. Mint makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. Announcement of a coin without qualifying issuance will not count. A qualifying coin must be legal tender, but does not need to be minted for general circulation. Commemorative coins minted for a limited production run will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Mint; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).