Early-Rabbi
0xb9ef0dbf8e59c24aaa6e27b287a74b8479df0cf9
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$19.28
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-257.24
Win rate
14%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
19 shares @ 60.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.28
$3.54
- NO
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
5 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.00
$0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 2?
344 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 11?
343 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-45.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on March 30?
335 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 1?
318 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 9?
213 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.11
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
151 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.56
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?
138 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
113 shares @ 41.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-47.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMHungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?$30.63Apr 16, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLHungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?$7.57Apr 7, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$34.88Apr 7, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 5?$1.58Apr 7, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?$28.47Apr 7, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?$29.10Apr 7, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$8.51Apr 7, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 6?$5.59Apr 6, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$0.73Apr 6, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYHungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?$4.58Apr 6, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYHungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?$1.30Apr 6, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYHungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?$1.38Apr 6, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?$0.54Apr 6, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?$3.94Apr 6, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?$0.40Apr 6, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?$2.25Apr 6, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?$3.96Apr 6, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 6?$4.87Apr 6, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$0.10Apr 6, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$0.23Apr 6, 00:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 20:13 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 16, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.