Noted-Locomotive
0xba4b0479307080c8968172d87f5813597ab38c1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$2.04
Total PnL
$81.51
Realised
$134.43
Win rate
10%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.90
$-0.10
- YES
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
30 shares @ 3.3¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.86
$-0.14
- YES
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
39 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.83
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting?
488 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
465 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
419 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.85Jul 14, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 510 million subscribers by July 31?$1.24Jul 14, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?$0.00Jul 10, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$0.00Jul 10, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 508 million subscribers by July 31?$0.29Jul 8, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.06Jul 8, 03:20 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.13Jul 7, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?$0.11Jul 7, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$0.02Jul 6, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$0.00Jul 6, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$0.00Jul 6, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 25 be between 90 and 95?$0.00Jul 6, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 7?$1.80Jul 6, 16:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?$1.83Jul 6, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$1.10Jul 6, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.08Jul 6, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?$1.42Jul 6, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.43Jul 6, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jul 5, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 4?$0.00Jul 4, 16:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
31 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 18:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 22:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.