Extraneous-Power
0xbab11b271a193e633be98a1574ec54396b9257ea
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$298.66
Total PnL
$-99.69
Realised
$190.48
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
509 shares @ 20.7¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$234.31
$128.75
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
100 shares @ 54.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$38.50
$-15.50
- YES
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 30.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.05
$4.05
- YES
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
914 shares @ 11.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.80
$-87.51
- YES
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
685 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.85
- YES
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
493 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-44.33
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
490 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.03
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?
400 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-29.40
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?
327 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-24.10
- NO
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
166 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.58
Recent activity
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)$50.00Jul 19, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)$34.05Jul 19, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 14, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.92Jul 14, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.04Jul 14, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.07Jul 14, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$150.00Jul 12, 04:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?$60.00Jul 12, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$10.31Jul 11, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$9.42Jul 11, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?$33.60Jul 6, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$101.49Jul 5, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$55.24Jul 2, 21:05 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)$191.01Jun 15, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)$100.76May 31, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?$1.39Apr 19, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?$20.46Apr 19, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?$1.89Apr 19, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?$10.08Apr 19, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?$0.72Apr 19, 14:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $17.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 06:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 03:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.