Subtle-Migrant
0xbacb35a25671dc39a3f24ae795761ed8b67db49e
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
93
Open notional
$29.88
Total PnL
$-88.91
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 88.9¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.06
$0.06
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
11 shares @ 18.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.61
$-0.39
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.47
$0.47
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.40
$0.40
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.37
$0.37
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.16
$0.16
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.09
$0.09
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.23Jul 20, 01:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.10Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$5.08Jul 19, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$5.15Jul 19, 17:26 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$1.16Jul 16, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.09Jul 12, 05:51 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score$2.17Jul 12, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 2.5$1.04Jul 12, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score$1.03Jul 12, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5$1.03Jul 12, 00:25 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$1.59Jul 12, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Norway O/U 0.5$1.43Jul 11, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: O/U 1.5$1.25Jul 11, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$1.01Jul 11, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Norway O/U 0.5$1.01Jul 11, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$1.02Jul 11, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: O/U 1.5$1.01Jul 11, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$1.04Jul 11, 20:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.11Jul 10, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$1.01Jul 10, 06:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 08:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 01:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.