Remorseful-Shoat
0xbacb48b2685953310dea6494625c040f525a175e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
53
Open notional
$528.28
Total PnL
$-239.18
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
89 shares @ 79.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$82.24
$11.24
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
58 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.13
$1.13
- NO
Government shutdown on Saturday?
55 shares @ 45.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$55.07
$30.07
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
51 shares @ 77.9¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$45.20
$5.20
- NO
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
47 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.94
$4.94
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
43 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.06
$1.06
- NO
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?
26 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$25.91
$0.91
- NO
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
21 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.05
$1.05
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
16 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$16.48
$1.48
- NO
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 13, 2026?
16 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$15.79
$0.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$1.00Feb 17, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYHosogi vs. Liu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5$1.00Feb 17, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?$7.22Feb 5, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$5.00Feb 5, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?$10.00Feb 5, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 13, 2026?$15.00Feb 5, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$1.00Feb 5, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?$3.04Feb 4, 23:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$19.76Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$9.90Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$14.72Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?$9.16Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$19.06Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$9.55Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?$29.78Feb 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?$10.00Feb 4, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court vacancy in 2026?$10.00Feb 4, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?$10.00Feb 4, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027?$10.00Feb 4, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$10.00Feb 4, 23:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $10.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 4, 21:31 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 17, 14:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.