Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Probability
40¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$9.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5990.2h
- 09:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5990h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:49PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 40¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 38¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 36¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 37¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 35¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 35¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 35¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 35¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 35¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).