Modest-Likeness
0xbc1775a8bc4dda029c04bc4976c5612430f6289a
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$122.71
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
5992 shares @ 44.9¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.6K
$-86.02
- YES
Blue tsunami in 2026?
1475 shares @ 50.6¢·now 42.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$619.46
$-127.54
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
1828 shares @ 27.2¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$502.70
$4.75
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
790 shares @ 57.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$446.27
$-4.03
- YES
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
671 shares @ 63.8¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2029$446.21
$17.95
- YES
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
1778 shares @ 20.8¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$346.71
$-23.60
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
580 shares @ 41.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$258.10
$19.23
- YES
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
631 shares @ 37.7¢·now 38.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$243.07
$5.14
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
564 shares @ 41.3¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$231.40
$-1.74
- YES
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
340 shares @ 59.5¢·now 62.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$210.80
$8.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$7.60Jun 13, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$20.27Jun 13, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$76.00Jun 13, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$0.65Jun 13, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.86Jun 13, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.11Jun 13, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$1.80Jun 13, 01:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jun 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?$0.05Jun 12, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.05Jun 12, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$0.74Jun 12, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$0.60Jun 12, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.28Jun 12, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.25Jun 12, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$7.50Jun 12, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$3.60Jun 12, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$19.85Jun 12, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$4.54Jun 12, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$25.44Jun 12, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?$61.95Jun 12, 01:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $19.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 23:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 09:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.