Posh-Sermon
0xbc48539a2d0871a520ec52318a4a00ab7c571a27
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$7.28
Total PnL
$-71.31
Realised
$-2.13
Win rate
0%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- YES
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
14 shares @ 13.4¢·now 10.2¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.37
$-0.44
- YES
Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
29 shares @ 3.4¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$-0.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.78
$-0.22
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
9 shares @ 10.6¢·now 7.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.68
$-0.32
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
22 shares @ 4.6¢·now 3.1¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.67
$-0.33
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.41
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.12
$-0.88
- YES
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?
162 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$1.00Aug 14, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón win on 2026-08-08?$1.04Aug 8, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-08-08?$1.05Aug 8, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portland Timbers vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?$1.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CF América vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?$1.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austin FC vs. Club Tijuana end in a draw?$1.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chicago Fire FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?$1.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CF Cruz Azul vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?$1.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New York City FC vs. Club Santos Laguna end in a draw?$1.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Los Angeles FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?$3.85Aug 6, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Dallas vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw?$1.04Aug 5, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Los Angeles FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?$1.04Aug 5, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CF Monterrey vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?$1.04Aug 5, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nashville SC vs. Club León FC end in a draw?$1.04Aug 5, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?$1.04Aug 5, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami CF vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?$1.04Aug 5, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olympiakós SFP vs. NEC end in a draw?$4.76Aug 4, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill RU Saint-Gilloise vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?$3.24Aug 4, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw?$0.01Aug 4, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olympiakós SFP vs. NEC end in a draw?$1.04Aug 4, 15:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
54 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 18:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 09:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.