Spiffy-Labourer
0xbcdb3f694727332499f50b5c1e42bbedccba87d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$335.92
Total PnL
$-348.64
Realised
$131.49
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- NO
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
100 shares @ 58.4¢·now 40.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$40.50
$-17.90
- NO
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
40 shares @ 89.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$35.00
$-0.80
- NO
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
50 shares @ 57.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$33.49
$5.00
- NO
Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
34 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$29.45
$1.04
- NO
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
40 shares @ 64.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$27.40
$1.80
- NO
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
39 shares @ 48.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$26.83
$8.03
- NO
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
52 shares @ 64.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$21.32
$-11.96
- NO
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
24 shares @ 64.0¢·now 70.6¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$17.05
$1.59
- NO
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
25 shares @ 65.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$16.25
$0.00
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
60 shares @ 20.3¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$15.30
$3.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.00Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$10.80Jul 29, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.30Jul 28, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.65Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$8.91Jul 27, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$1.14Jul 26, 12:51 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$10.00Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$6.80Jul 20, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.00Jul 20, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$5.68Jul 17, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$8.81Jul 14, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$20.00Jul 14, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026?$2.00Jul 13, 21:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$18.00Jul 12, 11:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.95Jul 12, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.25Jul 12, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.00Jul 12, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$42.40Jul 12, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.03Jul 12, 10:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $6.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 21:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.