Failing-Bungalow
0xbcefba5f81da7d7693907818b6a1a2bc74c75a1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$18.84
Total PnL
$-5.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
7 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$7.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$5.15
$0.15
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
3 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$3.19
$0.19
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.90
$-0.10
- YES
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
20 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- YES
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.54
$-0.46
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
2 shares @ 97.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$2.00Apr 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$7.01Apr 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$5.01Apr 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$3.01Apr 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$1.00Apr 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$2.01Apr 28, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?$1.27Apr 28, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?$1.96Apr 28, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: AI Edition$5.00Apr 28, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$100.81Apr 28, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?$104.85Apr 28, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$100.00Apr 13, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 13, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUY9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$1.00Apr 13, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$1.00Apr 13, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?$1.00Dec 7, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Tariff inflation" during December press conference?$1.00Dec 7, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: AI Edition$3.00Dec 7, 16:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP dip to $2.60 in September?$0.00Dec 7, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model on July 31?$0.00Dec 7, 16:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $12.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 17:42 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 14:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.