0xbd848c80fbf82d6f31a883660549342935ae1292
0xbd848c80fbf82d6f31a883660549342935ae1292
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$336.21
Total PnL
$-225.44
Realised
$-7.05
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 86.3¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.46
$-2.54
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.34
$0.34
- YES
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026?
26 shares @ 77.7¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.57
$-0.43
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 73.4¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.86
$-5.14
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
56 shares @ 71.6¢·now 25.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.02
$-25.98
- YES
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
13 shares @ 80.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.81
$0.81
- NO
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
12 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.4¢·exp Oct 3, 2026$10.81
$-0.19
- NO
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?
11 shares @ 87.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.74
$0.74
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
10 shares @ 96.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.16
$0.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNew pandemic in 2026?$10.05Jul 29, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before GTA VI?$5.15Jul 29, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother pandemic before GTA VI?$5.15Jul 29, 12:44 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before 2027?$4.11Jul 29, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$9.04Jul 29, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$5.13Jul 29, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$11.09Jul 29, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$7.03Jul 29, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.02Jul 29, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$15.07Jul 29, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$5.09Jul 29, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.08Jul 29, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$5.10Jul 29, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 29?$5.07Jul 29, 12:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.9% and 2.1%?$5.29Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$5.31Jul 28, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?$4.26Jul 28, 14:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $6.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 22:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 12:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.