Scornful-Epoxy
0xbe50ea246b34b58ef36043aa34caa8b3c1f2d592
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$76.52
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-57.20
Win rate
21%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
9 shares @ 5.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.98
$8.48
- NO
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
5 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.00
$0.55
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
5 shares @ 90.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.00
$0.47
- NO
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?
5 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.00
$0.60
- NO
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.00
$1.25
- NO
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
5 shares @ 90.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.00
$0.49
- NO
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
5 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.00
$0.85
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.85
- NO
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.00
$0.50
- NO
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.00
$2.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill another company be accused of insider trading?$2.60Feb 26, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot be accused of insider trading?$2.61Feb 26, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot be accused of insider trading?$7.18Feb 26, 11:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$7.18Feb 26, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axiom be accused of insider trading?$2.1KFeb 26, 11:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?$197.85Feb 26, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethena be accused of insider trading?$1.9KFeb 26, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena be accused of insider trading?$1.9KFeb 26, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Axiom be accused of insider trading?$300.00Feb 26, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?$200.00Feb 26, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$1.14Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$1.37Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMAztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?$1.58Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$5.00Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$90.00Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$100.00Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$226.96Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$233.56Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$300.00Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$470.00Feb 26, 10:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
34 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $195.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 6, 07:42 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 26, 11:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.