Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$1.38
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $3.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -15.8pp at 3d ago (to 3¢).
Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -15.8pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -15.2pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -14.2pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -14.1pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -6.4pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -3.3pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.