Wallet profile

Sophisticated-Turn

0xbe529f3c699cc19b8e11d207a3c2fb8cb35432c5

activity 74/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

74/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

137

Open notional

$9.6K

Total PnL

$-7.9K

Realised

$-157.47

Win rate

52%

31 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 137

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.68Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.68Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
  • TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$7.97Jul 23, 18:49 UTC
  • YIELD$0.68Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.63Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.60Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.60Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.59Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.59Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.60Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.60Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.61Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.62Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.64Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.64Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.63Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.62Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$10.64Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$17.27Jul 9, 18:33 UTC
  • YIELD$0.62Jul 9, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

53/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

52% win rate over 31 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

31 closed markets, 52% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity62 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
20
Avg trade size
$231.23
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 29, 07:04 UTC
Last active
Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample
31 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on PolymarketView on Polygonscan
updated 06:46:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data