0xbec46ec41f7a9fb691c4da355fe6d3fe80e9b075
0xbec46ec41f7a9fb691c4da355fe6d3fe80e9b075
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-309.77
Realised
$-452.60
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?
137 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$137.00
$57.54
- YES
Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?
105 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$105.00
$30.45
- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
101 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$101.00
$21.21
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
83 shares @ 75.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$82.94
$20.00
- YES
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
81 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$80.68
$11.02
- YES
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
70 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$70.00
$30.10
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
69 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$68.64
$28.83
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
59 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$57.88
$3.60
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
48 shares @ 82.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$45.60
$6.24
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
40 shares @ 84.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$39.82
$6.22
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$44.00Aug 21, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?$0.00Aug 19, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$0.00Aug 18, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$10.32Aug 17, 00:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$10.97Aug 16, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?$15.12Aug 15, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?$10.87Aug 14, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?$3.15Aug 14, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$0.00Aug 13, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.00Aug 12, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$9.53Aug 12, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?$15.32Aug 12, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rodri join Barcelona?$14.39Aug 12, 12:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?$39.99Aug 12, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?$28.56Aug 11, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?$14.86Aug 10, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$33.00Aug 10, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?$46.79Aug 10, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6.23Aug 9, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$6.50Aug 9, 16:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $33.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 06:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 09:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.