Hopeful-Crinoline
0xbf4fe7993728b53a9b8add3ad02211fbd76f16cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$23.52
Total PnL
$-39.81
Realised
$2.15
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30?
32 shares @ 15.6¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.75
$1.75
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
24 shares @ 25.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.16
$-0.84
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
76 shares @ 6.6¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.89
$-0.11
- YES
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?
74 shares @ 17.3¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.98
$-9.77
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
333 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
75 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.31
$-1.69
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 2.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.47
$-2.53
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?
464 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.46
$-1.54
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
214 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$6.91Jun 8, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$2.05Jun 6, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$2.54Jun 3, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$6.23Jun 2, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$0.23Jun 2, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30?$5.17Jun 1, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?$6.43May 31, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?$5.14May 31, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$7.20May 28, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuban regime falls in 2026?$12.00May 28, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$9.44May 28, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 27, 06:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$5.28May 26, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?$4.22May 26, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?$4.12May 26, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$4.91May 26, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$2.90May 26, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.86May 26, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?$8.00May 26, 06:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 06:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 8, 18:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.