Pesky-Parole
0xbfd8463ef064029a573bc6f3fb5a35500dd00fe9
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$63.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?
300 shares @ 38.3¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$285.00
$170.05
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?
300 shares @ 58.8¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$169.50
$-7.00
- NO
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?
600 shares @ 34.5¢·now 24.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$147.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on August 31?
200 shares @ 66.5¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$132.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?
380 shares @ 42.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$112.10
$-47.40
- NO
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?
200 shares @ 49.9¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$85.00
$-14.76
- NO
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?
140 shares @ 41.6¢·now 58.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$82.04
$23.91
- NO
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?
100 shares @ 71.8¢·now 75.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$75.00
$3.20
- NO
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?
100 shares @ 67.3¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 3, 2026$68.49
$1.15
- NO
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?
100 shares @ 47.0¢·now 67.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.20
$20.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$10.84Aug 18, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$11.06Aug 18, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?$30.69Aug 18, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?$53.92Aug 18, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?$30.60Aug 18, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$27.99Aug 17, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$231.87Aug 17, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?$72.81Aug 17, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?$116.45Aug 17, 08:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$106.28Aug 17, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$74.98Aug 17, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$25.02Aug 17, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?$52.83Aug 17, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?$102.26Aug 17, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$30.03Aug 17, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?$8.57Aug 17, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?$62.10Aug 17, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in July?$0.00Aug 17, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?$0.00Aug 17, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?$0.00Aug 17, 04:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $50.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 01:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 02:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.