Aching-Hole
0xbfe17aac3743c0a455b54c9ac004613542e905e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$168.08
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-42.38
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
176 shares @ 56.7¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$134.34
$34.34
- YES
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.10
$-0.30
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
158 shares @ 17.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.69
$-18.61
- YES
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
66 shares @ 30.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.92
$-13.08
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
71 shares @ 16.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.34
$-6.16
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
13 shares @ 24.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.44
$-1.56
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
102 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.25
$-4.01
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?
4133 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-898.23
- YES
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024?
3533 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-54.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$1.96May 2, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$56.01Apr 19, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$52.06Apr 19, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$7.31Apr 19, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$3.75Apr 19, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$53.54Apr 13, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$107.36Apr 13, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?$13.24Apr 13, 19:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$99.97Apr 13, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?$200.00Apr 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$40.00Apr 10, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?$150.00Apr 10, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?$20.00Apr 10, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$100.00Apr 10, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$12.21Apr 7, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$57.69Apr 7, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?$22.32Apr 7, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?$10.00Apr 7, 05:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$143.44Apr 7, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$20.00Apr 7, 05:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $67.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 01:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 18:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.