Wasteful-Comment
0xc2d7fef7f24d389cd28d52b48e6ecb172490deb5
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
197
Open notional
$8.2K
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-1.8K
Win rate
43%
187 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 197- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
452 shares @ 55.6¢·now 53.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$239.36
$-11.84
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
267 shares @ 67.7¢·now 66.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$178.39
$-2.57
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
184 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$169.11
$5.44
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?
216 shares @ 71.4¢·now 71.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$154.44
$0.31
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
155 shares @ 91.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$144.93
$3.43
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
222 shares @ 67.3¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.98
$-6.08
- NO
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
145 shares @ 85.7¢·now 87.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$126.15
$1.90
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
134 shares @ 90.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$125.49
$3.93
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
130 shares @ 94.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$124.15
$1.15
- NO
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
130 shares @ 94.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$122.85
$0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$28.50Aug 20, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 20, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$14.40Aug 20, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$21.90Aug 20, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$2.50Aug 20, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$19.32Aug 20, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$4.84Aug 20, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$6.05Aug 20, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$1.45Aug 20, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$1.35Aug 20, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$6.75Aug 20, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$28.20Aug 20, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$18.80Aug 20, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$28.50Aug 20, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$4.90Aug 20, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$4.90Aug 20, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$2.45Aug 20, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$2.45Aug 20, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$8.40Aug 20, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?$2.49Aug 20, 07:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 187 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
187 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 06:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 08:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 187 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.