Quarrelsome-Riddle
0xc3495dcb1fa3b073c0b37462b611f5466fa982d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$101.97
Total PnL
$-5.01
Realised
$65.49
Win rate
49%
92 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- YES
Will Ilia Topuria be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?
89 shares @ 1.0¢·now 9.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.62
$7.74
- NO
Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 53.4¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.63
$0.82
- YES
Government shutdown by October 1?
12 shares @ 40.9¢·now 45.5¢·exp Oct 2, 2026$5.29
$0.53
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$5.00
$1.90
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 17?
5 shares @ 24.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$5.00
$3.80
- NO
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$5.00
$2.10
- YES
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
4 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$4.39
$2.72
- NO
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the song of the summer?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$4.23
$0.88
- NO
Will Rodri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4 shares @ 57.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.82
$1.61
- YES
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ?
4 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$3.66
$2.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGovernment shutdown by October 1?$2.97Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?$1.50Jul 27, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?$1.20Jul 27, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 400-500k people?$3.73Jul 23, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 400-500k people?$4.07Jul 23, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLGovernment shutdown by October 1?$3.00Jul 23, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYGovernment shutdown by October 1?$2.91Jul 23, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?$4.48Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
- TRADESELLTodd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?$2.18Jul 22, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$4.77Jul 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "New Religion - Bebe Rexha & Faithless" be the song of the summer?$0.30Jul 22, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$3.33Jul 22, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.21Jul 22, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$3.98Jul 22, 08:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Raindance - Dave & Tems" be the song of the summer?$0.00Jul 21, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.2%?$1.61Jul 21, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.28Jul 21, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.15Jul 21, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027?$0.52Jul 21, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027?$0.57Jul 21, 10:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 92 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
92 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 92 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.