SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Ilia Topuria be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026?

Probability

66¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-4.5pp

24h Vol

$42.37

Liquidity

$766.04

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 21:41
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 66¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5978h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 14.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5978.3h

    LOW
  • 21:41Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5978h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-6.5pp over the last 24h, now 66¢.

Biggest hourly move: +18.0pp at 00:00 (to 77¢).

Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
  • 06:00 · +15.0pp → 74¢
  • 05:00 · +12.0pp → 71¢
  • 03:00 · +12.0pp → 71¢
  • 02:00 · +12.0pp → 71¢
  • 00:00 · +18.0pp → 77¢
  • 22:00 · +13.5pp → 73¢
  • 1d ago · +11.5pp → 71¢
  • 1d ago · +14.0pp → 73¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings, following Islam Makhachev. If Islam Makhachev remains #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the Pound-For-Pound rankings within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Islam/No Next #1 in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings, following Islam Makhachev
Link
ufc.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

19 wallets
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