Prize-Firewall
0xc37141e2aadfa26655bf039cacdc239c9da21e28
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$272.93
Total PnL
$-21.3K
Realised
$2.4K
Win rate
72%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
181 shares @ 14.7¢·now 24.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$44.37
$17.80
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
98 shares @ 51.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$43.63
$-6.37
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
31 shares @ 65.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$30.43
$10.43
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
48 shares @ 42.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$24.52
$4.52
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
92 shares @ 32.5¢·now 26.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$24.05
$-5.95
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 68.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.03
$1.03
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
80 shares @ 14.5¢·now 24.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$19.49
$7.91
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 69.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$18.41
$-1.59
- NO
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
97 shares @ 20.6¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.97
$-2.03
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 58.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.03
$-3.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$23.53Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 28?$22.99Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?$20.68Jul 27, 23:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 27?$33.90Jul 27, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1AM ET$2.69Jul 27, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.60Jul 27, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.20Jul 27, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.63Jul 27, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.72Jul 27, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.67Jul 27, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.53Jul 27, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.72Jul 27, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.29Jul 27, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.29Jul 27, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12AM ET$4.25Jul 27, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$15.00Jul 27, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$4.15Jul 27, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$4.15Jul 27, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$4.34Jul 27, 03:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
69 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 03:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.