Frayed-Predecessor
0xc39212e63a5cb886bb4fb96953cacc04f52b511b
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
172
Open notional
$327.06
Total PnL
$-6.9K
Realised
$562.55
Win rate
11%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 172- YES
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
1200 shares @ 19.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$162.00
$-72.00
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
518 shares @ 9.8¢·now 12.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$64.49
$13.73
- YES
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
955 shares @ 13.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.07
$-67.07
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 13.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.50
$-91.50
- YES
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?
7799 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2025$0.00
$-17.72
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
7140 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-37.51
- YES
No token launch by March 31
5407 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
5226 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-10.45
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-130.00
- NO
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?
5000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-45.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
44 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $63.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 00:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.