Grumpy-Receiver
0xc443d3a18f113af8c77408318e9fbd979939bbdb
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$22.3K
Total PnL
$-40.6K
Realised
$210.47
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
24377 shares @ 64.3¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.8K
$-3.8K
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?
3973 shares @ 84.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.6K
$250.75
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
3914 shares @ 77.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.4K
$410.61
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
1500 shares @ 73.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.1K
$52.50
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1229 shares @ 81.4¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$982.19
$-17.81
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
1500 shares @ 67.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$937.50
$-67.50
- NO
Maduro guilty of all counts?
373 shares @ 61.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$296.34
$66.22
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
266 shares @ 88.3¢·now 35.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.55
$-141.13
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
16705 shares @ 47.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-8.0K
- YES
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?
15499 shares @ 93.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.5K
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.71Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.82Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.88Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.94Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.94Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.92Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.77Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.77Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.84Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.82Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.65Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.57Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.60Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.57Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.49Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.40Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $153.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.