Memorable-Shaw
0xc44660585c315bd930925e047d70bdfc29c5d9aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$20.82
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
242 shares @ 20.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.12
$-31.42
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
67 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.69
$-5.96
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
3110 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-56.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
1864 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-54.00
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?
901 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-27.50
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
559 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.60
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
466 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-97.78
- YES
X relaunches Vine in 2025?
350 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-121.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
206 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-107.93
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 24?
201 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$88.00Jun 6, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$53.77Apr 5, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?$82.24Apr 2, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$13.81Apr 1, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$107.93Mar 29, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$17.70Mar 29, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$244.97Mar 1, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?$176.86Mar 1, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$20.08Jan 14, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$8.65Jan 10, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$17.21Jan 10, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$35.73Jan 10, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$26.97Jan 10, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMThailand x Cambodia ceasefire by August 15?$0.00Jan 10, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4000 in July?$0.00Jan 10, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMXi Jinping out in 2025?$0.00Jan 10, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$97.78Jan 10, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$78.80Jan 5, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?$61.90Jan 5, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the top AI model on December 31?$0.00Jan 5, 02:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $35.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 24, 19:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 19:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.