Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Down 9pp over 24h

   Now 31¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 2.3× turnover

   $11.3k traded against $4.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Thin liquidity

   Only $4.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.