Adored-Borrowing
0xc44a0e315c7381030f114023cca27b174d248da6
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-493.65
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
1430 shares @ 54.2¢·now 66.1¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$946.27
$170.57
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
1087 shares @ 46.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$614.02
$114.02
- YES
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
2632 shares @ 3.8¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.32
$-73.68
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
2130 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.91
- YES
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?
1681 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-245.23
- YES
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
1413 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-84.80
- YES
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?
1145 shares @ 32.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-375.12
- YES
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?
1114 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-44.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by April 30?
1072 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?
1012 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$5.27Jul 28, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$26.40Jul 28, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$32.80Jul 28, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$100.00Jul 27, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$500.00Jul 27, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$3.00Jul 27, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$672.70Jul 27, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?$1.57Jul 27, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$0.00Jul 27, 05:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$0.00Jul 27, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$100.00Jul 26, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$599.37Jul 26, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$100.00Jul 25, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?$10.49Jul 25, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$0.80Jul 25, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?$36.31Jul 25, 11:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?$312.09Jul 25, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?$173.87Jul 24, 15:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$20.00Jul 24, 14:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $88.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 19:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 08:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.