Wallet profile

Unaware-Birdhouse

0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8

activity 72/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

72/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

81

Open notional

$47.7K

Total PnL

$-316.1K

Realised

$1.7K

Win rate

57%

23 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 81

Recent activity

  • YIELD$3.44Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$3.45Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$3.45Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$3.45Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$3.46Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
  • YIELD$3.45Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$3.45Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$3.46Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$3.47Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$3.47Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$3.47Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$3.47Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$3.48Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$3.47Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$3.45Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$333.30Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
  • MERGE2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$4.0MJul 9, 21:12 UTC
  • MAKER_REBATE$61.67Jul 9, 00:46 UTC
  • YIELD$363.40Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$1.4KJul 8, 05:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

57% win rate over 23 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity53 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence77 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry16 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk57 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
8
Avg trade size
$819.37
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 22, 10:40 UTC
Last active
Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
Win rate sample
23 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 11:40:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data